Thirty percent of bitcoin has shown its key

Nine crypto companies unveiled the Quantum Alliance on Thursday to develop common security standards for bitcoin, Ethereum and other blockchain networks. The number at the centre of the case is that 6.4 million bitcoin, or 30.2 percent of the supply, have public keys that are already exposed, including an estimated 1.1 million attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.

The mechanism is specific and so is the caveat. A sufficiently capable quantum computer could reverse-engineer a wallet's publicly visible key to uncover its secret key and move the funds. The alliance states clearly that those coins cannot be stolen this way today, because no existing machine can do it.

Where the field does not agree is timing. Forecasts for when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arrives differ, with one researcher citing 2028 as realistic. Christopher Smith, chief executive of the quantum-resistant layer-1 blockchain Quantus, put a blunter case to CoinDesk.

The most likely scenario is that whoever gets the first CRQC (Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer) will take them, probably with the blessing of whichever national government. Hopefully it's a government that likes bitcoin.

The harder disagreement is about what to do with the exposed coins. Proposals to freeze them, move them or place them in a trust have raised concerns about property rights and network neutrality, and any security upgrade would require broad coordination across the Bitcoin ecosystem. That is a governance problem rather than a cryptographic one, and it is the part no standards body can settle on its own. The alliance's own stated remit is narrower than the argument surrounding it: developing common standards to help blockchains adopt quantum-resistant security.